From U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention
December 30, 2012
Introduction
The CDC Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention is pleased to provide a basic guide
to the cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV/AIDS prevention interventions. The
purpose is to make this literature more accessible to researchers and to help
prevention program staff and planners become more familiar with potential uses
of economic evaluation.
This guide consists of two sections. The first section introduces the basic
concept of cost-effectiveness analysis. The second section provides the sources
of basic model inputs commonly used in the literature. Significant publications
in the field and other related sources are also provided at the end.
Overview of Cost-Effectiveness
Analysis
What Is Cost-Effectiveness Analysis?
Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a type of economic analysis where both
the cost and the outcome (impact, result, effect, benefit, health gain ...) of
an intervention are evaluated and then expressed in the form of a
cost-effectiveness ratio. The numerator of the cost-effectiveness (CE) ratio
represents the cost of the intervention associated with one unit of "outcome".
The denominator is the unit of outcome. It can be expressed using many types of
measures including: years of life gained, quality-adjusted life years gained
(QALYs), new diagnoses, infections averted, and deaths averted. CEA is usually
conducted on interventions that are known to be effective.
The CE ratio is a fraction used to compare the relative costs and outcomes of
two or more interventions. In
Example
1, the outcome measure chosen is "new HIV diagnoses" and the CE ratio of the
programs evaluated is expressed in terms of "cost per new HIV diagnosis". The CE
ratio of Program A is $41,667 per new HIV diagnosis. This ratio does not reveal
the cost of implementing the program nor the number of new HIV diagnoses
detected by the program. However, when comparing the CE ratio of Program A to
that of Program B, we can say that Program B is more cost-effective than Program
A when CE is measured in terms of "cost per new HIV diagnosis," because at
$7,400 per new HIV diagnosis, Program B is less costly for the same outcome.
| Example 1 |
[a] Annual Program Cost |
[b] Annual Number of New HIV Diagnoses Detected by Program |
CE Ratio: Cost per New HIV Diagnosis ([a]/[b]) |
| Program A |
$500,000 |
12 |
$41,667 / new HIV diagnosis |
| Program B |
$37,000,000 |
5,000 |
$7,400 / new HIV diagnosis |
Cost per new HIV diagnosis
HIV interventions, such as screening
and partner services, are intended to identify HIV-positive persons who are
unaware of their infection. When evaluating several such programs in CE
analysis, the outcome "new HIV diagnoses" is often used to enable a comparison
across these programs; so the CE ratio is expressed in terms of cost per new HIV
diagnosis.
Cost per infection averted (IA)
HIV prevention interventions such
as syringe exchange programs, counseling for at-risk youth or post-exposure
prophylaxis are intended to prevent (avert) infection in HIV-negative persons.
Such programs can be evaluated to determine the number of infections prevented
that would have otherwise occurred had the intervention not been provided. When
evaluating several such programs in CE analysis, the outcome "HIV infections
averted" is often used to enable a comparison across these programs; so the CE
ratio can be expressed in terms of cost per infection averted.
The lifetime treatment cost of an HIV infection can be used as a conservative
threshold value for the cost of averting one infection. Currently, the lifetime
treatment cost of an HIV infection is estimated at $379,668 (in 2010 dollars),
therefore a prevention intervention is deemed cost-saving if its CE ratio is
less than $379,668 per infection averted.
As an outcome, the number of HIV infections averted due to a program can be
evaluated using different mathematical techniques that vary in complexity and
the amount of data or number of assumptions required. Attention should be paid
to the timeframe of the intervention effect considered in the evaluation. For
example, if the timeframe is one year, then the cost may have to be incurred
annually in order to continue to avert the HIV infections.
Cost per life year (LY) gained
HIV treatment interventions,
including retention in care and treatment
adherence, are in part intended to
extend the lives of HIV-positive persons. Such programs can be evaluated to
determine the number of additional life years gained (or saved) that otherwise
would have been lost to premature death. When evaluating these types of programs
in CE analysis, the outcome "life years" often is used to compare them; so the
CE ratio can be expressed in terms of cost per life year gained.
Cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained
As an outcome,
life years do not reflect any of the positive or negative effects on the quality
of life of the patients receiving an intervention. For example, drug treatment A
may provide an additional 2 years of life dominated by hospitalization while
drug treatment B may provide an additional 1 year of life without any
significant ill effects.
A quality-adjusted life year (QALY) is an outcome measure that considers both
the quality and the quantity of life lived. The QALY is based on the number of
years of life added by the intervention. Each year in perfect health is assigned
the value of 1.0. Each year of less-than-perfect health is assigned a value less
than 1.0 down to a value of 0.0 for death. If the extra years would not be lived
in full health, for example if the patient would lose a limb, be blind or suffer
from worse mental health, then the extra life-years may be given a value of less
than 1 to account for this.
HIV interventions intended to improve and/or extend the lives of HIV positive
persons can be evaluated to determine the number of additional QALYs gained (or
saved) that would have otherwise been lost. When evaluating several such
programs in CE analysis, the CE ratio can be expressed in terms of cost per QALY
gained.
Most outcome measures, including infections averted, life years gained and
new HIV diagnoses, can be translated into QALYs, thereby providing a consistent
measure of comparison across many different types of intervention programs.
Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds
A cost-effectiveness ratio of $50,000 to $100,000 per QALY gained has been
long cited in the literature as a conservative threshold for a cost-effective
intervention. Traditionally, if an intervention was estimated to cost less than
$50,000 to $100,000 per QALY gained, it would be considered cost-effective.
However, recent studies have argued that this benchmark is likely too low since
the threshold has not been reassessed over time.
1
To reflect the advances of modern health care, Braithwaite et al reevaluated the
threshold and estimated the plausible range for a cost-effectiveness decision
rule to be between $109,000 and $297,000 per QALY saved (in 2003 dollars;
$143,000-$388,000 in 2010 dollars).
2
What Does "Cost-Saving" Mean?
When two or more programs are being compared (intervention vs. comparator),
the intervention is labeled as "cost-saving" when both the net outcome of the
intervention is greater than or equal to that of the comparator and the cost of
the intervention is less than the cost of the comparator.
A program can
only be deemed cost-saving when it is compared to an alternative. The
alternative is typically the status quo or the current standard of
care.
In
Example
2, Program A is both cheaper and more beneficial than the current standard
of care and is therefore a cost-saving alternative. CE ratios cannot be
negative.
| Example 2 |
[a] Annual Program Cost |
[b] Annual Number of QALYs Gained |
CE Ratio: Cost per QALY Gained ([a]/[b]) |
| Program A (intervention) |
$750,000 |
50 |
$15,000 / QALY gained |
| Standard of care (comparator) |
$1,000,000 |
40 |
$25,000 / QALY gained |
| Difference |
$(250,000) |
10 |
Cost-saving |
If the costs of Program A and the Standard of care are borne by the same
institution, then the savings will be reaped by that institution. Often,
however, the costs of HIV interventions are borne by many distinct entities,
including government, health care systems and individuals, and the savings are
not realized by any single entity. In addition, the savings may occur over many
years.
How to Interpret a CD Ratio?
At $100,000 per QALY (or at higher thresholds), a program may be considered
cost-effective. However, this ratio contains a numerator and a denominator and
thus no interpretation can be made as to the annual cost of this program.
| Example 3 |
[a] Annual Program Cost |
[b] Number of Persons Served by Program |
[c] Sum of QALYs Gained by Program |
Cost per Person Served ([a]/[b]) |
Cost per QALY Gained ([a]/[c]) |
| Program A |
$400,000 |
4,000 |
10 |
$100 |
$40,000 |
| Program B |
$50,000,000 |
5,000 |
1,250 |
$10,000 |
$40,000 |
In
Example
3, both programs A and B have the same measure of cost-effectiveness in
terms of cost per QALY gained, however, Program B is more costly to implement
than A. Investment in Program B may nonetheless be justified depending on
budgetary constraints and the ability to implement for the program in the
population and setting considered.
If A and B are complementary rather than alternative programs, then they can
both be implemented. Implementing Program A and/or B in a particular population
and setting requires an evaluation of the number of persons that potentially
could be served by the intervention and the resulting overall costs.
Basic Model Inputs for
Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
In this section, we list some of the most recent and significant publications
that include key input parameters researchers might use in model-based
cost-effectiveness analyses. It is not intended to provide a comprehensive
overview of these topic areas -- only to give readers an idea of some key works
in the field.
Cost of HIV Treatment
A large fraction of the economic burden of HIV/AIDS is the medical costs of
treating persons with HIV. Medical cost estimates are often based on health care
utilization by persons with HIV disease. The costs associated with health care
utilization in each disease stage are summed across all disease stages from
infection to death. The average annual cost of HIV care in the ART era was
estimated to be $19,912 (in 2006 dollars; $23,000 in 2010 dollars).
3
The most recent published estimate of lifetime HIV treatment costs was $367,134
(in 2009 dollars; $379,668 in 2010 dollars).
4
Cost of Testing
Testing in health care settings
Several U.S.-based studies have
evaluated the cost-effectiveness of routine opt-out HIV screening in clinical
settings. These settings included emergency departments, primary care settings,
urgent care centers, and STD clinics. The results were generally consistent. The
cost per new diagnosis ranged from $1,900 to $10,000 (in 2010 dollars), and
varied by setting and testing implementation strategy.
5-9
Testing in non-health care settings
Non-health care settings, such
as jails/prisons, community-based organizations (CBOs), and outreach venues, are
also common places to implement
HIV
testing programs. Individuals eligible for testing in those settings could
be identified through partner services or social networks. Cost-effectiveness
studies of these strategies have found the results generally consistent within
similar settings. For example, the cost per new HIV diagnosis associated with
CBO-sponsored activities ranged from $10,334 to $20,413 (2010 dollars).
10-11
Variance in the cost per new HIV diagnosis was more pronounced when evaluating
HIV testing programs in jails (from $2,946 per new diagnosis in Florida jails to
$30,392 in Wisconsin jails),
12
reflecting the differences in undiagnosed HIV prevalence among inmates as well
as differences in implementation costs.
HIV Survival
The use of
highly active
antiretroviral therapy (HAART) since 1996 has significantly improved
survival for persons infected with HIV. Schackman et al. estimated life
expectancy from the time of infection to be 32.1 years from a large dataset of
persons in routine outpatient care in the current treatment era.
13
Using U.S. national HIV surveillance data, another study estimated that average
life expectancy after an HIV diagnosis increased from 10.5 to 22.5 years from
1996 to 2005.
14
HIV survival data have been reported slightly differently in the literature
because of various definitions of timeframe, e.g., time from HIV seroconversion
to AIDS, time from seroconversion to death, and time from HIV diagnoses to
death. Survival also varies by gender, age at infection, mode of infection, and
the timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy.
15-18
HIV Epidemiology
Recent HIV incident estimates
CDC published new incidence estimates
in 2011 using a refined methodology that allowed for an updated 2006 incidence
estimate (previously 56,300) as well as new estimates for 2007, 2008, and 2009.
These new estimates showed that the annual number of new HIV infections was
stable overall from 2006 through 2009:
19
- In 2006 there were an estimated 48,600 new HIV infections in the
United States (95% confidence interval: 42,400-54,700)
- In 2007 there were an estimated 56,000 new HIV infections (95%
confidence interval: 49,100-62,900)
- In 2008 there were an estimated 47,800 new HIV infections (95%
confidence interval: 41,800-53,800)
- In 2009 there were an estimated 48,100 new HIV infections (95%
confidence interval: 42,200-54,000)
More HIV surveillance reports can be found at:
www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/resources/reports/index.htm
HIV Transmission Rate Estimates
HIV transmission risk varies by
different modes of transmission. The most common transmission modes include
unprotected receptive and insertive anal intercourse, unprotected receptive and
insertive vaginal intercourse, and contaminated needle sharing. The estimates of
these and other per-act or per-partner transmission probabilities can be found
in the listed references of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.
20-23
Utility Estimate for HIV/AIDS
Many studies have reported quality-of-life estimates for HIV infection and
AIDS. Published estimates vary by study design and assessment method.
24-25
Tengs et al conducted a meta-analysis of utility estimates for HIV/AIDS to
elicit utilities from patients on a scale ranging from 0.0 for death to 1.0 for
perfect health. The study is commonly cited for reporting a pooled estimate of
utility of 0.70 for AIDS patients, 0.82 for symptomatic HIV patients, and 0.94
for asymptomatic HIV patients [3].
26
HIV Prevention Data
Annual Cost of HIV by State
We estimated the annual cost of HIV by state based on the number of new HIV
diagnoses in each state, multiplied by the lifetime treatment cost discounted to
the time of infection for each new case (
Table
1). Our cost estimates assume that a diagnosis occurs within the same year
as infection, and thus an individual incurs treatment costs over many years. The
states with highest number of new diagnoses in 2009, and thus the greatest
financial burden, were Florida, California, New York, and Texas. In all, the
total lifetime treatment cost for HIV based on new diagnoses in 2009 was
estimated to be $16 billion.
| Table 1: State-Specific Costs From New
Diagnoses of HIV Infection in 2009 |
| State |
Nb. of New Diagnosesa |
Total Lifetime Treatment Costb (in million) |
| Alabama |
690 |
$253 |
| Alaska |
21 |
$8 |
| Arizona |
653 |
$240 |
| Arkansas |
214 |
$79 |
| California |
4,886 |
$1,794 |
| Colorado |
391 |
$144 |
| Connecticut |
366 |
$134 |
| Delaware |
168 |
$62 |
| District of Columbia |
713 |
$262 |
| Florida |
5,775 |
$2,120 |
| Georgia |
2,073 |
$761 |
| Hawaii |
70 |
$26 |
| Idaho |
42 |
$15 |
| Illinois |
1,708 |
$627 |
| Indiana |
483 |
$177 |
| Iowa |
125 |
$46 |
| Kansas |
150 |
$55 |
| Kentucky |
361 |
$133 |
| Louisiana |
1,247 |
$458 |
| Maine |
57 |
$21 |
| Maryland |
1,400 |
$514 |
| Massachusetts |
484 |
$178 |
| Michigan |
827 |
$304 |
| Minnesota |
393 |
$144 |
| Mississippi |
559 |
$205 |
| Missouri |
547 |
$201 |
| Montana |
30 |
$11 |
| Nebraska |
105 |
$39 |
| Nevada |
386 |
$142 |
| New Hampshire |
43 |
$16 |
| New Jersey |
1,252 |
$460 |
| New Mexico |
170 |
$62 |
| New York |
4,649 |
$1,707 |
| North Carolina |
1,719 |
$631 |
| North Dakota |
14 |
$5 |
| Ohio |
1,144 |
$420 |
| Oklahoma |
297 |
$109 |
| Oregon |
235 |
$86 |
| Pennsylvania |
1,736 |
$637 |
| Rhode Island |
123 |
$45 |
| South Carolina |
789 |
$290 |
| South Dakota |
23 |
$8 |
| Tennessee |
999 |
$367 |
| Texas |
4,291 |
$1,575 |
| Utah |
125 |
$46 |
| Vermont |
11 |
$4 |
| Virginia |
997 |
$366 |
| Washington |
557 |
$204 |
| West Virginia |
80 |
$29 |
| Wisconsin |
305 |
$112 |
| Wyoming |
19 |
$7 |
| Total |
44,502 |
$16,338 |
aSource: CDC HIV Surveillance Report 2009, Vol 21. Note that the
numbers of new diagnoses listed in this table do not adjust for reporting delay,
and thus are likely underestimated.
bTotal cost = Nb. of new diagnoses* Lifetime treatment cost per
person
Life treatment cost per person=$367,134 (in 2009 dollars)
Source:
Schackman BR, Gebo KA, Walensky RP, et al. The lifetime cost of current human
immuno-deficiency virus care in the United States. Medical Care 2006; 44:
990-997. |
Savings From Prevention Efforts
Farnham et al. (2010) measured the value of HIV prevention efforts in the
United States by comparing the difference between the number of infections that
have occurred with the number that might have occurred in the absence of
prevention programs. Combined with estimates of lifetime treatment costs
27
(2009 dollars), the study estimated the medical savings from infections averted
by U.S. prevention programs from 1991-2006 to be $129.9 billion with 361,878 HIV
infections averted.
28
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- Phillips KA, Fernyak S. The cost-effectiveness of
expanded HIV counseling and testing in primary care settings: a first look.
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- Walensky RP, Losina E, Malatesta L, Barton GE, O'Connor CA, Skolnik PR, Hall
JM, McGuire JF, Freedberg KA. Effective HIV case identification through routine
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- Silva A, Glick NR, Lyss SB, Hutchinson AB, Gift TL, Pealer LN, Broussard D,
Whitman S. Implementing an HIV and sexually transmitted disease screening
program in an emergency department. Ann Emerg Med 2007; 49(5): 564-572.
- Mehta SD, Hall J, Greenwald JL, Cranston K, Skolnik PR. Patient risks,
outcomes, and costs of voluntary HIV testing at five testing sites within a
medical center. Public Health Rep 2008; 123(5): 608-617.
- Farnham PG, Hutchinson AB, Sansom SL, Branson BM. Comparing the costs of HIV
screening strategies and technologies in health-care settings. Public Health
Rep 2008; 123 Suppl 3: 51-62.
- Shrestha RK, Clark HA, Sansom SL, Song B,
Buckendahl H, Calhoun CB, Hutchinson AB, Heffelfinger JD. Cost-effectiveness of
finding new HIV diagnoses using rapid HIV testing in community-based
organizations. Public Health Rep 2008; 123 Suppl 3: 94-100.
- Golden MR, Gift TL, Brewer DD, Fleming M, Hogben M, St Lawrence JS, Thiede
H, Hnadsfield HH. Peer referral for HIV case-finding among men who have sex with
men. AIDS; 20(15): 1961-1986.
- Shrestha RK, Sansom SL, Richardson-Moore A,
French PT, Scalco B, Lalota M, Llanas M, Stodola J, Macgowan R, Margolis A.
Costs of voluntary rapid HIV testing and counseling in jails in 4
states--Advancing HIV Prevention Demonstration Project, 2003-2006. Sex Transm
Dis 2009; 36(2 Suppl): S5-S8.
- Schackman BR, Gebo KA, Walensky RP, Losina E,
Muccio T, Sax PE, Weinstein MC, Seage GR 3rd, Moore RD, Freedberg KA. The
lifetime cost of current human immunodeficiency virus care in the United States.
Med Care 2006; 44(11): 990-997.
- Harrison KM, Song RG, Zhang XJ. Life expectancy
after HIV diagnosis based on national HIV surveillance data from 25 states,
United States. JAIDS 2010; 53(1): 124-130.
- Losina E, Schackman BR, Sadownik SN, Gebo KA,
Walensky RP, Chiosi JJ, Weinstein MC, Hicks PL, Aaronson WH, Moore RD, Paltiel
AD, Freedberg KA. Racial and sex disparities in life expectancy losses among
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initiation, and early discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy. Clin Infect
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systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies. Lancet Infect
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intercourse: systematic review, meta-analysis and implications for HIV
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parenteral exposure and blood transfusion: a systematic review and
meta-analysis. AIDS 2006; 20(6): 805-812.
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measuring the quality of life associated with HIV infection. Qual Life
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Comparison of health state utilities using community and patient preference
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2002; 22(1): 27-38.
- Tengs TO, Lin TH. A meta-analysis of utility
estimates for HIV/AIDS. Med Decis Making 2002; 22(6): 475-481.
- Schackman BR, Gebo KA, Walensky RP, Losina E,
Muccio T, Sax PE, Weinstein MC, Seage GR 3rd , Moore RD, Freedberg KA. The
lifetime cost of current human immunodeficiency virus care in the United States.
Med Care 2006; 44(11): 990-997.
- Farnham PG, Holtgrave DR, Sansom SL, Hall HI.
Medical costs averted by HIV prevention efforts in the United States, 1991-2006.
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Resources
Cost-Effectiveness Databases
- Tufts Medical Center Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry
(
https://research.tufts-nemc.org/cear4/)
This U.S.-based database offers detailed information on more than 2,500
English-language cost-effectiveness analyses published in the peer-reviewed
medical and economic literature. The original cost per QALY estimates from a
wide array of diseases and intervention types are retrieved and updated to the
most recent year for comparison purposes.
- National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE)
(
www.nice.org.uk/)
NICE serves the United Kingdom's National Health Services and is well-known
for developing and publishing guidelines on public health, health technologies
and clinical practice based on evaluations of efficacy and cost-effectiveness
evidence. It also sets quality standards and manages a national database for
high-quality, cost-effective patient care, covering the treatment and prevention
of different diseases and conditions. NICE provides access to quality
information and best practices so that care decisions can be made based on the
best possible evidence.
- NHS Economic Evaluation Database (EED)
(
www.crd.york.ac.uk/crdweb/HomePage.asp)
This UK-based database focuses on the economic evaluation of health care
interventions, including cost-benefit analyses, cost-utility analyses, and
cost-effectiveness analyses. Extensive literature searches are undertaken each
week, and brief details from eligible studies are published on the database.
Studies that are relevant to the UK health care system are considered priorities
for writing abstracts, which include a non-technical summary of the topic,
conclusions, and a brief description of the effectiveness information. A
critical commentary summarizes the overall reliability and generalizability of
the study.
Cost Inflation Tool
Consumer Price Index (CPI)The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a
measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers
for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Every month the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys prices and generates the CPI. The CPI includes
all consumer expenditure items in more than 200 categories, arranged into eight
major CPI components, such as housing, transportation, medical care, etc.
Researchers often use the medical care component of the CPI to adjust health
care costs reported in previous years to their value in current dollars.
Historic CPI series and component data can be found at the Bureau of Labor
Statistics website:
www.bls.gov/cpi/.
How to adjust medical costs using CPI
The formula for calculating
current costs using the CPI is relatively simple. Assume the medical care
component of CPI for year 1990 is 125. A CPI for year 2000 of 175 indicates a
1.4 cost adjustment or a 40% increase in medical-related expenditures since
1990.
| Year |
Medical Care Component of CPI |
Inflation Rate From Year 1 to Year 5 |
| 1990 |
125 |
175/125=1.4 |
| 2000 |
175 |
Assume the medical costs for condition X are estimated to be $10,000 per
patient in year 1990. By multiplying $10,000 by 1.4, we get the value of the
medical costs for condition X in 2000. In other words, treatment valued at
$10,000 in 1990 would cost $14,000 in 2000.
Additional Prevention Modeling and Economics Team (PMET) Publications
- Prabhu VS, Farnham PG, Hutchinson AB, Soorapanth S, Heffelfinger JD, Golden
MR, Brooks JT, Rimland D, Sansom SL. Cost-effectiveness of HIV screening in STD
clinics, emergency departments, and inpatient units: a model-based analysis.
PLoS One 2011; 6(5): e19936.
- Hutchinson AB, P. Patel, S. L. Sansom, P. G. Farnham, T. J. Sullivan, B.
Bennett, P. R. Kerndt, R. K. Bolan, J. D. Heffelfinger, V. S. Prabhu, and B. M.
Branson. Cost-effectiveness of pooled nucleic acid amplification testing for
acute HIV infection after third-generation HIV antibody screening and rapid
testing in the United States: a comparison of three public health settings.
PLoS Med 2010; 7: e1000342.
- Prabhu VS, Hutchinson AB, Farnham PG, Sansom SL. Sexually acquired
infections in the United States due to acute-phase HIV transmission: an update.
AIDS 2009;23(13): 1792-1794.
- Sansom SL, Hutchinson AB, An Q, Hall I, Shrestha RK, Prabhu VS, Lasry A,
Taylor A. Cost-effectiveness of newborn circumcision in preventing HIV among
U.S. males. PLoS One 2010; 5(1): e8723.
- Hutchinson AB, Farnham PG, Duffy N, Wolitski RJ, Sansom SL, Dooley SW,
Cleveland JC, Mermin JH. Return on public health investment: CDC's expanded HIV
testing initiative. JAIDS 2011 (Epub ahead of print).
Source