December 9, 2013

Gilead Sciences: A Unique Stallion

Peovided by Seeking Alpha

Dec 9 2013, 11:12  |  about: GILD

Prohost Biotech

Taking down Gilead (GILD) seems to be beyond the reach authors of tales intended to frighten investors into selling this outstanding stock. The attempts have been repetitive but short of success. Gilead is a stallion. Unlike stallions, the horses whose muscular superiority over other horses is genetically derived, Gilead’s power is acquired through a unique culture that embraces the power of intuition, self-confidence, common sense and courage. Using an optimal amount of faith, the firm turned intuition into inspiration and using courage and wisdom, the Stallion carried out inspired tasks fated unattainable by others.

Thanks to the megastar’s contribution in the treatment of AIDS through its mega anti-retroviral pills, millions of desperate AIDS patients’ death sentences are being nullified. The use of multiple highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) turned the torturer and killer disease into a chronic disease, decreasing the patient's total HIV burden, preserving the immune system’s function and avoiding the opportunistic infections that used to assume the killer’s role of AIDS victims before the HAART drugs.

Mentioning the firm’s intuition and insight in the beginning of this article was not meant as a crafted artistic text to just praise a firm, but a reality demonstrated in Gilead’s decisions in general. A well-illustrated inspired act, though, is Gilead’s decision to pay an obscene amount of money to buy Sovaldi (sofosbuvir) - the pill that the FDA granted approval a couple of days ago. All analysts, stockholders and all Gilead’s fans, including Prohost believed that the decision made no sense; especially that Gilead has its own drug discovery technology. As the drug was passing the tests of clinical trials and approaching approval, all those who disapproved of the firm’s decision realized how insightful was Gilead and how shortsighted they were.

Recalculating, we grasped the fact that millions of more hopeless HCV infected people who had declined to take previous treatments from fear of side effects will be willing to take the Sovaldi combination that would cure them in a 12-weeks. Assessing the cost of treatment while considering the cost of the untreated progressive HCV infection, the cost of the all-oral combination looked meager in comparison with the cost of the progressive disease, the complication of cirrhosis, including the hospitalization for hemorrhagic episodes, for liver transplant, the cost of transplant complications and of the possibility of HCV infection of the transplanted liver and of cancer. More important is avoiding the cost patients pay in their agony caused by intolerable symptoms, and caused by the expectation of cancer and death.

Regarding the finances, It is estimated that the drug will bring a little less than in $2 billion in revenues during its penetration. The revenues are now expected to reach over $6 billions a couple of years in the future.

Edward Cox, director of the Office of Antimicrobial Products in the FDA’s drug evaluation center, seems to have stated, ““The approval of Sovaldi represents a significant shift in the treatment paradigm for some patients with chronic hepatitis C

Some analysts believe now that the $11 billion Gilead paid for the drug is now estimated to bring in more than $100 billion in sales revenues over a decade.

The sofosbuvir cocktail taken for 12 weeks cured 90 percent of patients with genotypes 1, 4, 5 and 6 who hadn’t been treated before, Sovaldi is also approved for genotypes 2 and 3, which account for as many as 25 percent of infections, in combination with ribavirin.

The stallion has reached the finish line before the other horses. Let’s not talk about other horses now. It is Gilead’s week. When the celebration ends, we will try to find another stallion among the other horses. We are sure we will find a few.

FORWARD-LOOKING: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. Further, these are our 'opinions' and we may be wrong. We may have positions in securities mentioned in this article. You should take this into consideration before acting on any advice given in this article. If this makes you uncomfortable, then do not listen to our thoughts and opinions. The contents of this article do not take into consideration your individual investment objectives so consult with your own financial adviser before making an investment decision. Investing includes certain risks including loss of principal.

Disclosure: None


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